Daily Inspiration: "It's pretty certain that your shortsighted decisions will give you long-term complications!" - Futurist Jim Carroll
"We don't need to do it right now."
That's one of the most common responses when I poll an audience as to the innovation excesses that hold back their organization from pursuing the future.
The most dangerous moment for any organization is when it lets a short-term focus cause it to lose sight of the necessity for long-term change and investment. And right now, as everyone everywhere seems to be in a frozen state of indecision, it's those who dare to step away from the pack and make big, bold moves to align to tomorrow who will be the ones who will win.
Change is inevitable - your indecisiveness need not be.
"We don't need to do it right now." If not now, when? What happens here? There's a stunning lack of urgency, a sense of complacency, a mindset of meandering forward. The result is a regular stream of missed opportunities, failed initiatives, and eventually, failed strategies.
You can't play the long game with short-term myopia.
Daily Inspiration: "The solution to your indecision is not to be found in avoiding it!" - Futurist Jim Carroll
Think faster. Act more. Do things.
Hunt down the hesitation. Vanquish the vacillation. Destroy the dithering! Get moving! The world is changing but many organizations are not, because they are paralyzed by indecision.
You know I write about this topic a lot, most often in the context of a world in which everyone seems to have been waiting around for a recession that didn't happen. Organizations seem to be deferring plans, avoiding action, hesitating on innovating, and preferring to spin their wheels, instead of actually doing something. The result is entirely predictable as the world begins to pass them by.
I certainly see it in my world each and every day. The last year has been a roller coaster of event inquiries, slow decision-making, or a complete absence thereof. The good news is that my fall is full, with events in San Diego, Houston, Hawaii, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Palm Springs. The side news to all this is that I've blocked off two full weeks starting at the end of the month, as my 30-year-old son will be getting married. I intend to be fully engaged in all of the joyous celebrations - and have turned down a significant number of potential speaking engagements as a result.'
But for all those events that are going forward, there have been many more that have not.
Daily Inspiration: "Be tomorrow. Today." - Futurist Jim Carroll
I've got an event today for Enterprise University - it's a virtual event that has been run by Enterprise Bank and Trust for 20 years. They've been doing virtual for longer than there has been virtual! They run quite an extensive series of events for customers and others; you can take a look at the items they are covering in the upcoming season at https://enterprisebank.com/eu-registration. You can still sign up for my session that occurs later today via that page!
During my virtual keynote, I will be going online with quite a few AI tools, demonstrating some of the practical ways that it can be used, today.
I've long been a believer that one of the most effective ways to understand the future is to 'be' the future. The future is all around us already - much of it is in very easy or very preliminary stages.
With that being the case, one of the best ways to understand it is to fully immerse yourself in it.
I'm using a wide range of AI technologies in this way - making them a part of my daily workflow, how I'm doing my research, and how I am conducting my talks. To be in the future, BE the future. Immerse yourself, dive right in, get involved, even if you don't know what is going on. Because it's one of the most effective ways to figure out what is actually going on!
Daily Inspiration: "Have you ever noticed how some people can easily explain why an outcome that they did not expect was inevitable all along?" - Futurist Jim Carroll
After things happen, everyone's an expert, because they express their knowledge of the inevitability of it all! And yet, in fact, people seem to be experts at everything with actual expertise in nothing.
We can probably blame this state of affairs on the media, and in particular, today's modern-day talk show format. In the rush to get ratings, they've engineered an online style that involves bombast, aggression, and anger. I guess to survive in this world, you have to be prepared to toss your principles out the door. I withdrew from participating in media interviews, particularly of the talk show format, after a bizarre appearance on CNBC with Maria Baritoromo in 2006. In a show about innovation, the producers behind the scenes seemed to be eager to get everyone active in yelling at each other. I mean, the show was about innovation! Bizarre.
And yet, this mindset has also become very common in the corporate setting. Many organizations suffer from 'hindsight bias' - that is the tendency for people to suggest, after some major event or market shift has occurred, that they knew all along that it would happen. The problem with this is that it leads to a culture where people are unwilling to learn from mistakes.
"Before you are good at something, you're bad at it. That's OK. That's how it's supposed to work!" - Futurist Jim Carroll
Stop chasing perfection. Chase action.
My 10 Great Words Web page and the related document were the subject of a lot of visits yesterday; for some reason, it has met the search engine gods! That's always fine, because you see a traffic spike and wonder - what brought this on? https://10greatwords.jimcarroll.com
Every time this happens, I go back and re-read what I wrote, which was around 20 years ago. My mindset has stood the test of time - it's actually a great document to get into an innovative and future-oriented state of mind. Take a look!
One of the words I use is Try, as in:
--
Try. How many of your people have lost their ability to adapt to changing circumstances because they’ve lost their confidence? Developing new skills and career capabilities is critical, given the rapid change occurring in every profession. And yet, too many people have managed to convince themselves that they can’t adapt; they can’t change; they can’t master the new realities that surround them. They’ve lost their self-confidence, and they desperately need it back. Solve this problem fast.
---
I really like the word Try, because it implies action, moving forward, chasing goals, pursuing knowledge, and finding solutions.
Daily Inspiration: "Be the person known for ideas, not excuses" - Futurist Jim Carroll
Word gets around about the whiners.
You know who they are - the constant complainers, those who suggest it can't be done, and the engines of negativity. No one likes a co-worker who is always dragging the team down instead of lifting them up. This becomes particularly true when they don't become known for the ideas they suggest, but for the excuses they offer up. They're never looking for a solution, because they are too busy generating complaints. They never offer any good suggestions because they've been too busy tearing down all the others.
They never have an original idea because they've spent all their time looking for reasons why they couldn't find one.
They wear you out with their negativity and drag you down with their pessimism.
Don't become known as this person.
Others don't want to hang around them because they are, well, just a drag.
Offer up ideas, even if they are a little too far off the beaston path. Become known as the person with suggestions, even when they might be a little bit extreme. Develop a reputation as an original thinker, even if you've got to stretch really hard to do some thinking. Because at the end of the day, if you are the person who can inspire others with ideas rather than the one who is perceived to be blocking the way, you'll be regarded as a trailblazer.
And I have to edit a file and I can't even save it because of permission issues, even though I've done everything to give myself permission and I'm admin. Yikes.
Well, let's tear things down and build them up again to do a bit of a wire reallocation of the cameras into the new Mac Mini M2 Pro. Oh, and while we're at it, let's introduce a newly liberated 2015 iMac to act as an NDI monitor off to the right side, as well as set it up to offload some machine power to fire some polls into the new Mac Mini via NDI. Oh, and while we're at that, let's convince the wife I should take the old monitor that used to be there and hang it on the wall up above said 2015 iMac as another HDMI show monitor..... and then lets try and get the OBSBot Tiny camera up and working finally since we've done a big Thunderbolt input reallocation. It should all just go .... well .....
@sfoskett Totally wild if you don't have the process nailed, but if you treat it like a rocket launch, testing and retesting and blowing things up a few times, you get a smooth launch. Here's a clip of a full one hour live event I did last week. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HwZuM3D2CM
Daily Inspiration: "The real magic begins once we start to chat with the machines" - Futurist Jim Carroll
In the TV series The Jetsons, the humans regularly talked to the robots.
That future isn't that far away. Watch the video in which the Google DeepMind research group is using ChatGPT-like commands to instruct a robotic arm to use its machine vision to identify and work with a particular object. In this case, it's been asked to identify and lift the extinct animal. It's figured out which animal figure is the extinct one, utilizing its AI-based machine-vision analysis, and proceeds accordingly. Imagine this - the next command could be something as simple as this - "Find the king of the jungle and place it next to the sports item used by LeBron James." Magical!
The full details of this not-too-small achievement can be found on an extensive page that details all the work behind the scenes: "RT-2: Vision-Language-Action Models: Transfer Web Knowledge to Robotic Control."
In other words, we're learning how to use large language models - the tech behind Bard, ChatGPT, and Bing -- to figure out what to do and translate these results into actions that are given to the robots.
Daily Inspiration: "If you think you are having a bad day, try being a horse introduced into a new herd!" - Futurist Jim Carroll
Meet Dawn, and my daughter-in-law, Kim.
Dawn has been having a hard time, to say the least. And I am pleased to know that things might finally be settling down.
The backstory? I spend a lot of my time on stage and in my leadership events speaking to the issues of change and change management. Talking about such things as how individuals should work harder to align themselves to a faster-moving future, adapt to rapidly changing circumstances, and be more accepting of the whirling world of change around them. Stuff like that.
As humans, we have it pretty easy when compared to what a horse has to go through.
I have learned far more about animal herd behavior than I thought I ever would! The things we don't know about in our lives and then discover become an overall part of our fascinating voyage of knowledge!
And through the process, I learned a little bit more about change management over and above what I preached about from the stage. Bringing a new horse into a herd is, perhaps, akin to introducing a teenager to a new high school.
Daily Inspiration: "A strategy based on hype isn't a strategy. It's a tombstone for cash"' - Futurist Jim Carroll
You have a decision to make.
Today is the day you should draw a line in the sand. Yesterday - September 13, 2023 - should be the day that you stopped the madness.
Because at this very moment, you are making the decision that yesterday was the last day in which you will tolerate an AI strategy based on hype; on chasing technology for the purpose of chasing technology; of trying to mold and shape your business to fit the AI juggernaut rather than twisting and forming AI to solve problems in your business.
Because we are clearly at the peak of overinflated expectations when it comes to AI.
"**Fresh from playing Glastonbury in 2009, the courgette-crotch-stuffing bass player and botanist is back! With the sequel to the classic rockumentary in the works and a Barbie-hating single. Ask him anything in the comments"**
Daily Inspiration: "Stop trying to be everything to everyone. Just be the best thing to those who matter." - Futurist Jim Carroll
No one likes a trailblazer. Except, perhaps, other trailblazers.
Did you catch Apple's Mother Nature video, which was tucked away in the middle of its new iPhone broadcast the other day? It was an attempt by the organization to lay out, in a new and different way, its success - or lack thereof - in meeting its sustainability objectives. As an organization that actually chases sustainability rather than chasing lip service, it sought to try to tell its story in a unique and different fashion. After all, in this world of collapsed attention spans and shock journalism, it's pretty likely that few people would actually read a long report about sustainability - so why not try something different?
The result? People either loved it - or loathed it.
There is a lot to learn from the reactions that people had - and what Apple has learned as a result. It's an innovation story.
What do you recommend for a password manager these days in light of the LastPass continued debacle? Asking for a charitable group I'm involved with that just got a hack....
These traits are common to most tech CEOs; we can go back in time and identify all the common reasons for failure to these traits. He did all these things at Twitter.
(I've been online since 1982, wrote 34 books about the Internet in the 90's, have consulted widely to all kinds of tech companies etc etc; been around the block a few times)
Daily Inspiration: Much of the focus on AI these days has to do with the potential disruptive business opportunities and challenges.
Yet in addition to that, there is something perhaps even more profound underway, and that is exponentiation in the baseline tools that are available to all of us to enhance and accelerate our creativity. Let me explain.
Just over a year ago, when I first began to use some of the AI-to-image generation tools, I asked it to draw a picture of a deer staring into a webcam. What I got back was, at the time, mind-blowing - and yet, rather primitive.
And then consider what is going on with Baby Vikings. Read the post.
Daily Inspiration: "Quit quitting" - Futurist Jim Carroll
Many organizations embrace failure because they always give up on trying to do the hard stuff. Many leadership teams never get their project to the finish line because they give in to the negative elements around them that are always pushing them to stop. Many individuals never get to where they could be because they simply stop trying. Too many quit too early.
Quitting is easy; staying the course and seeing things through is hard. That's not to say there is a benefit to be found in 'good quitting.' I've quit quite a few negative things in my life along the way, and know that quitting an effort to permanently quit something is not a great thing.
Three months into our relationship in 1987, my new girlfriend suggested to me that I had a choice to make - it was either the cigarettes or her. I chose wisely - today, she is my wife. She's since seen me make a few other great decisions along the way that have involved 'good quitting.'
I digress.
Here's the thing. Quitting early can set you back when the inevitability of the trend eventually rears its head. Which brings us to the story and the film, "Who Killed the Electric Car?" In the face of the inevitability of the electrification of vehicles, many major automotive companies are far behind, and for some of them, that is the result of a past decision to quit on an obvious future trend.
Daily Inspiration: "Explaining AI today is just like explaining the internet in 1993" - Futurist Jim Carroll
My 90s, as some of you know, were WILD. Writing and co-writing 34 books, hosting multiple national radio shows, writing columns regularly for newspapers and magazines, doing HUNDREDS of media interviews, including TV, print, and radio ... and raising a young family with my wife at the same time. Wild.
One of the books I co-wrote in 1995 - which followed a Profit magazine cover story profile shortly before which examined the strategic business opportunities of the Internet - went by the awful name of the Canadian Internet Advantage. It was a business strategy book, plain and simple - how could you use the Internet for strategic impact? It opened with this observation:
You might be intimidated by the computer technology that makes up the Internet. You want to understand it without listening to computer geeks speak of the wonders of high-speed broadband internetworking or the joys of multitasking. You might want to understand the Internet without getting lost in talk about bits and bytes and RAM and ROM and FTP and Telnet.
And so, you want to understand the business opportunities that can be found through use of the Internet.
-------------------- Substitute 'AI' for 'Internet' - and swap out 'FTP and Telnet' for 'ChatGPT and LLM's' - and it says the same thing.
Daily Inspiration: "Create Your Own Giant Leap!" - Futurist Jim Carroll
I'm a space nerd. Yesterday, I was space nerdering.
In any event, I've obviously found a lot of futuristic, innovation-themed insight with NASA and the space industry. And I've been shocked when I've been invited (twice) to speak to NASA - to a room full of astronauts, launch directors, and more. As I reported after the first one down in Houston:
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What do you do when you are the worlds leading space organization, and things are in a bit of a funk? Funding cutbacks, the cancellation of missions and programs,
You engage a futurist to come in for a talk on the issue of 'transformational leadership' and what great leaders do to redefine their future in an era of significant transition.
And NASA found me, and I found myself in a room giving a dinner talk to a group that included astronauts, launch directors, (literally) rocket engineers and more.
One thing I did - in order to take them into the future,I took them back into their past to demonstrate to them all the other times that they faced similar situations, rose to the challenge, and accelerated to the future!
Read the blog post which summarized their reaction. One of the highlights of my 25 year speaking career!
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------ Commit yourself to trying to do something you think you can't do! Create your own giant leap!
Daily Inspiration: "It’s at the very moment you think your future is guaranteed it becomes a certainty that it isn’t!" - Futurist Jim Carroll
When you speak about the future, you can't just point to examples of leadership success as examples of the road to success - you need to outline the failures that you've seen which led to a pathway to failure. I've seen a lot of failures in my career within my client base - it's always interesting to look back at a talk that I gave years ago and to take a look at what eventually happened with the organization.
I spent some time yesterday in my meeting with 60 CEOs in Houston, outlining the leadership attitudes and actions that can often hold back success - as good examples of the type of thinking to avoid.
And so here are some fun stories about Nortel, Motorola and DaimlerChrysler.
I seem to be alive at this stage, so doing another server level backup. Will go for my morning walk, and continue with next step when i am back. Stay tuned!
- go sequential. 4.1.6 to 7 to 8 to 9 and then .20
- do server level backups along the way
- be precise in the steps for 4.2.0. The Mastodon docs aren't very good at outlining the EXACT steps to follow.... you've got to examine several upgrade docs to figure out the process. Personally, I find the docs kind of dumb; why they can't outline all the steps in one doc I don't know
"If you are using `rbenv`, update the list of available versions and install Ruby 3.2.2 by doing `RUBY_CONFIGURE_OPTS=--with-jemalloc rbenv install` in the Mastodon install directory (e.g. `/home/mastodon/live`)"
Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test Test test Test
@bplein@sfoskett No worries. I gave it a go and it wasn't my thing. Having said that, I'm running a Home Assistant container inside a Virtual Machine on an old 2009 iMac running Ventura. We all have our unique paths to go down!
Daily Inspiration: "Use the tools" - Futurist Jim Carroll
Try my AI!
My mindset has always been 'You can’t talk about tomorrow if you aren’t doing tomorrow.'
With that in mind, if you head over to my website - jimcarroll.com - you'll find a little button at the top right, "Ask AI." (It will hopefully soon read "Ask My AI" - I've sent this in as a product suggestion.) That will give you a drop-down box that begins to lead you into the AI-based tool which will construct insight from over the 4,000 posts on my site, using ChatGPT.
You can ask questions of all the material I have written since 2002, conversing with my AI just as you might converse with ChatGPT. It's the same technology. For example, if you ask "How does an organization become more innovative?", it will give you a rather well-constructed response, based upon its having ingested the over 4,000 posts into a small little large-language-model, pumped out by the technology of ChatGPT.
I've built this into my site using CommandBar, a company long in the business of building effective customer support Website integrations, and which has recently integrated AI capabilities into its system.
@bplein@sfoskett My home server rack. All of the Mac's but one are running Linux. Gives old machines a new life! But there's also a 2009 iMac running the Home Assistant setup under Virtual Box within Ventura.
I think stuff like this keeps the minds of oldsters like us busy and engaged LOL.
Daily Inspiration: "Never stop chasing creativity!" - Futurist Jim Carroll
I'm a bit of a weather nerd.
And so when my son and his bride-to-be sent out their wedding invitation some time ago, they told everyone that I would make available a short series of long-range weather forecasts. People could choose to sign up for my updates, and about half the guests have done so.
I've been busy studying the long-range weather maps, watching the insight of Henry and others, and basically, weather-geeking out. The day of the wedding, October 7, is just about the time when the weather gets 'interesting' in the Muskokas, Canada, where the wedding will be held in just about 10 days' time, as the clash of the seasons begins in full force.
I dove right into the project, and so for my second weather update, I decided to use the full effect of my green screen broadcast studio.
My mindset? Never stop learning! Always keep exploring!
I could have been headlining a major conference in Abu Dhabi today.
But I turned down the opportunity - even though it would have involved a *substantial* fee.
And in fact, I've turned down about 15 speaking opportunities through these next two weeks.
Why? My 30-year-old son gets married in 10 days. It seems like he was just a baby. We are here helping where we can with any last-minute preparation; doing the things that need to be done, and ensuring we are fully engaged in all the joy the next two weeks will bring.
Success is not always what you think it is. It is not defined by reaching the pinnacle opportunities of your career. It is defined in making the *right choices* at the *right time.*
Throughout my career, I've turned down many big opportunities for even bigger - and more important opportunities - all involving my family. I am a richer person for doing so.
Success is doing the things that are the most important - not the things that you think are the most successful.
Daily Inspiration: "Move fast and fix things" - Futurist Jim Carroll
(Unity apologizes)
Steve Ballmer, the VP of Microsoft who was the driving force next to Bill Gates in the early rapid rise of the organization, understood the critical importance of "developers." Most modern-day software and tech company CEOs do not - in particular, folks like Elon Musk.
The president of gaming engine Unity Create, Marc Whitten, certainly does. His recent sincere apology and response to a self-imposed developer crisis give a textbook example of how to deal with an egregious mistake once your customers let you know - in no harsh terms - that you were completely wrong with your actions.
It offers an example that when you break things, you've got to move fast to fix things because we live in a world in which egregious mistakes can suddenly spiral out of control. We now live in a future in which you no longer fully own your future - your customers or external business partners do.
Daily Inspiration: "Certain trends are inevitable. Your inability to accept them should not be." - Futurist Jim Carroll
The automotive industry strike and the role that electric vehicles are playing within is puzzling, but not surprising.
This much is true - as I often characterize on stage, the industry is in the midst of a massive transformation as cars become 'big batteries with wheels.' And workers are scrambling to ensure they have a role, which is certainly fair.
What is interesting, though, is how politicized the issue has quickly become, with some suggesting that all that has to happen is to scrap the move to EVs altogether - as if that were an actual possibility. (It's not. Horse buggy makers would like to have a word.) With that, it's no surprise the auto companies push back on this mindset.
The idea of 'stopping' the move to electric vehicles might play well for politics, but as with all things, politics is not reality.
When it comes to the future and trends, certain things are certain. Oil and carbon are over as we transition energy to a world of batteries, renewables, electric vehicles, and smart grids. Insurance is moving from looking back for risk analysis to underwriting risk in real time. A huge portion of the skilled workforce will never return to the office. Construction is moving to a world in which more of the assembly is done off-site. Healthcare is moving to a model in which we no longer just fix people after they are sick, but one that through preventative genomic and diagnostic medicine, we have a good sense of what they might become sick with - and act in advance.
And most automobiles in the future will be ... big batteries on wheels, with computers inside. It's inevitable. Certain things are certain.
Daily Inspiration: "Always take the opportunity to go beyond the opportunity!" - Futurist Jim Carroll
The industry in which I work has many people finding me via word-of-mouth, search engines, and social media, or in other cases, via the many speakers bureaus that represent me. Having been at this for more than 30 years, I've got dozens who list me and have booked me at one time or another.
Every once in a while a new bureau hears of my representation and approaches me to see if they might be able to do business with me; I rarely turn down those who are well-established, come with a respected pedigree, and are known for displaying integrity within the industry. A few weeks, Santiago Zapata, the President of Bogota, Columbia, HiCue Speakers, approached me; I knew of them and knew I would immediately be onside. (And what an on-brand Spanish name!)
He sees some opportunity to work with me throughout the South American region, particularly around the AI topic, as he seeks to expand the number of topic experts that he has in this area.
The normal course of events would have me sending a bio, a picture for the Website, and an overview of potential topics. But our world today is not in a 'normal' state - there is a flood of new speakers, everyone seems to be a topic expert on everything, and there is rather intense competition. I've always worked hard to make a first impression, believing that we should always take the opportunity to go beyond the opportunity.
With that in mind, I went into my home broadcast studio, set up a set, generated some introductory content from my good friend Briana the AI avatar - and filmed an appropriate introduction that he could share with his clients. The video is now featured on his blog, as well as going out in a mailing - in addition to an article I wrote for his blog that focuses on the issue of strategic clarity around AI.
And yes, I was a roadie for KISS for two concerts.
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"Jim explains that the future isn’t easy. In manufacturing today a machinist has to be able to do trigonometry in their head. farming requires new skills in future tech, and the need to decouple our supply chain has never been greater to limit geopolitical risk. Jim is an international speaker, prolific writer, and a man of ideas and experience. You won’t want to miss our conversation, on our future.
16:35 What is techno skepticism
22:17 The two angles of Skepticism 24:37 10% of the audience hates my message
25:54 Does different demographics respond differently to your message?
28:12 Europe likes the status quo except in the case of …
33:54 Transformation has to come from the top
37:34 Precision farming without the Sun
50:00 There are two types of future farmer
54:32 The right to repair trend
59:05 “ friendsharing” – decoupling geo political risk
1:04:52 Future of sophisticated manufacturing
1:07:55 The future isn’t easy – understand the trends
Apparently it's **#NationalCoffeeDay** - who declares these things? With that in mind, here's a story on when the National Coffee Tea & Water Association booked me for a keynote, and I explained, I'm genetically engineered for coffee! It's true - I shared my DNA with them!
